Smart Choices

Author: John S. Hammond
Publisher: Harvard Business Review Press
ISBN: 1633691055
Size: 36.70 MB
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Where should I live? Is it time to get a new job? Which job candidate should I hire? What business strategy should I pursue? We spend the majority of our lives making decisions, both big and small. Yet, even though our success is largely determined by the choices that we make, very few of us are equipped with useful decision-making skills. Because of this, we often approach our choices tentatively, or even fearfully, and avoid giving them the time and thought required to put our best foot forward. In Smart Choices, John Hammond, Ralph Keeney, and Howard Raiffa—experts with over 100 years of experience resolving complex decision problems—offer a proven, straightforward, and flexible roadmap for making better and more impactful decisions, and offer the tools to achieve your goals in every aspect of your life. Their step-by-step, divide-and conquer approach will teach you how to: • Evaluate your plans • Break your potential decision into its key elements • Identify the key drivers that are most relevant to your goals • Apply systematic thinking • Use the right information to make the smartest choice Smart Choices doesn’t tell you what to decide; it tells you how. As you routinely use the process, you’ll become more confident in your ability to make decisions at work and at home. And, more importantly, by applying its time-tested methods, you’ll make better decisions going forward. Be proactive. Don’t wait until a decision is forced on you—or made for you. Seek out decisions that advance your long-term goals, values, and beliefs. Take charge of your life by making Smart Choices a lifetime habit.

The Negotiator S Fieldbook

Author: Andrea Kupfer Schneider
Publisher: American Bar Association
ISBN: 9781590315453
Size: 21.24 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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Edited by Andrea Kupfer Schneider and Christopher Honeyman and featuring 80 contributors, The Negotiator's Fieldbook is the most comprehensive book on negotiation available. And the concept that everybody negotiates is increasingly accepted as wisdom. A world in which small manufacturers find their customers and their suppliers on the far side of the globe, in which lifetime stability of employment has been replaced by successive negotiation for new jobs, and in which prenuptial agreements and mediated divorces flank a noticeable percentages of marriages, makes the fact of continuous negotiation more and more obvious. This book pulls together the relevant ideas on negotiation from law, psychology, business, economics, cultural studies and a dozen other fields to provide a context for successful negotiation.

Making Better Decisions

Author: Itzhak Gilboa
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1444336517
Size: 15.11 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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Making Better Decisions introduces readers to some of the principal aspects of decision theory, and examines how these might lead us to make better decisions. • Introduces readers to key aspects of decision theory and examines how they might help us make better decisions • Presentation of material encourages readers to imagine a situation and make a decision or a judgment • Offers a broad coverage of the subject including major insights from several sub-disciplines: microeconomic theory, decision theory, game theory, social choice, statistics, psychology, and philosophy • Explains these insights informally in a language that has minimal mathematical notation or jargon, even when describing and interpreting mathematical theorems • Critically assesses the theory presented within the text, as well as some of its critiques • Includes a web resource for teachers and students

Decisions With Multiple Objectives

Author: Ralph L. Keeney
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521438834
Size: 69.54 MB
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This book describes how a confused decision maker, who wishes to make a reasonable and responsible choice among alternatives, can systematically probe their thoughts and feelings in order to make the critically important trade-offs between incommensurable objectives.

Research And Practice In Multiple Criteria Decision Making

Author: Yacov Y. Haimes
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642573118
Size: 25.41 MB
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During the past two decades, the consideration of mUltiple objectives in modeling and decision making has grown by leaps and bounds. The nineties in particular have seen the emphasis shift from the dominance of single-objective modeling and optimization toward an emphasis on multiple objectives. The proceedings of this Conference epitomize these evolutionary changes and contribute to the important role that the tield of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) now plays in planning, design, operational, management, and policy decisions. Of special interest are the contributions of MCDM to manufacturing engineering. For example, it has recently been recognized that optimal, single-objective solutions have often been pursued at the expense of the much broader applicability of designs and solutions that satisfy multiple objectives. In particular, the theme (MCDM and Its Worldwide Role in Risk-Based Decision Making) of the XIVth International Conference on Multiple Criteria Decision Making (Charlottesville, Virginia, USA, June 8-12, 1998) represents the growing importance of risk-cost-benefit analysis in decision making and in engineering design and manufacturing. In such systems, minimizing the of rare and extreme events emerges as an essential objective that risk complements the minimization of the traditional expected value of risk, along with the objectives attached to cost and performance. These proceedings include forty-five papers that were presented at the Conference. A variety of techniques have been proposed for solving multiple criteria decision-making problems. The emphasis and style of the different techniques largely reflect the fields of expertise of their developers.

Making Difficult Decisions

Author: Peter J. A. Shaw
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1907293868
Size: 67.11 MB
Format: PDF, ePub
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You are faced with so many difficult decisions. Often your decision making seems random. It can be swayed by different situations and emotions. You need to be more rigorous in the way you make decisions and yet you have very little time to do so. Experience from others who have made tough decisions and a framework to help you do so would be invaluable. The courage to make decisions is sometimes a bit elusive. It is difficult to find the calmness to be able to make and live with those decisions. There is so much that can be learned from the experience of others. After working through this book you will have the courage of your convictions and the ability to make difficult decisions count. The book sets out a framework for making difficult decisions that has been tried and tested. It has been used successfully in one-to-one coaching with senior leaders in both the public, private and voluntary sectors. The framework is built on the following strands: Clarity; Conviction; Courage; and Communication.

Decision Making In Natural Resource Management

Author: Michael J. Conroy
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118506235
Size: 54.35 MB
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This book is intended for use by natural resource managers andscientists, and students in the fields of natural resourcemanagement, ecology, and conservation biology, who are confrontedwith complex and difficult decision making problems. The book takesreaders through the process of developing a structured approach todecision making, by firstly deconstructing decisions into componentparts, which are each fully analyzed and then reassembled to form aworking decision model. The book integrates common-senseideas about problem definitions, such as the need for decisions tobe driven by explicit objectives, with sophisticated approaches formodeling decision influence and incorporating feedback frommonitoring programs into decision making via adaptive management.Numerous worked examples are provided for illustration, along withdetailed case studies illustrating the authors’ experience inapplying structured approaches. There is also a series of detailedtechnical appendices. An accompanying website providescomputer code and data used in the worked examples. Additional resources for this book can be foundat: ahref="http://www.wiley.com/go/conroy/naturalresourcemanagement"www.wiley.com/go/conroy/naturalresourcemanagement/a.

Risk A Very Short Introduction

Author: Baruch Fischhoff
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191620246
Size: 29.32 MB
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We find risks everywhere—from genetically modified crops, medical malpractice, and stem-cell therapy to intimacy, online predators, identity theft, inflation, and robbery. They arise from our own acts and they are imposed on us. In this Very Short Introduction, Baruch Fischhoff and John Kadvany draw on the sciences and humanities to explore and explain the many kinds of risk. Using simple conceptual frameworks from decision theory and behavioural research, they examine the science and practice of creating measures of risk, showing how scientists address risks by combining historical records, scientific theories, probability, and expert judgment.Risk: A Very Short Introduction describes what has been learned by cognitive scientists about how people deal with risks, applying these lessons to diverse examples, and demonstrating how understanding risk can aid choices in everyday life and public policies for health, safety, environment, finance, and many other topics. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable.

Capital Budgeting Valuation

Author: H. Kent Baker
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9781118044568
Size: 39.80 MB
Format: PDF
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An essential guide to valuation techniques and financial analysis With the collapse of the economy and financial systems, many institutions are reevaluating what they are willing to spend money on. Project valuation is key to both cost effectiveness measures and shareholder value. The purpose of this book is to provide a comprehensive examination of critical capital budgeting topics. Coverage extends from discussing basic concepts, principles, and techniques to their application to increasingly complex, real-world situations. Throughout, the book emphasizes how financially sound capital budgeting facilitates the process of value creation and discusses why various theories make sense and how firms can use them to solve problems and create wealth. Offers a strategic focus on the application of various techniques and approaches related to a firm's overall strategy Provides coverage of international topics based on the premise that managers should view business from a global perspective Emphasizes the importance of using real options Comprised of contributed chapters from both experienced professionals and academics, Capital Budgeting Valuation offers a variety of perspectives and a rich interplay of ideas related to this important financial discipline.

Non Bayesian Decision Theory

Author: Martin Peterson
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1402086997
Size: 23.88 MB
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For quite some time, philosophers, economists, and statisticians have endorsed a view on rational choice known as Bayesianism. The work on this book has grown out of a feeling that the Bayesian view has come to dominate the academic com- nitytosuchanextentthatalternative,non-Bayesianpositionsareseldomextensively researched. Needless to say, I think this is a pity. Non-Bayesian positions deserve to be examined with much greater care, and the present work is an attempt to defend what I believe to be a coherent and reasonably detailed non-Bayesian account of decision theory. The main thesis I defend can be summarised as follows. Rational agents m- imise subjective expected utility, but contrary to what is claimed by Bayesians, ut- ity and subjective probability should not be de?ned in terms of preferences over uncertain prospects. On the contrary, rational decision makers need only consider preferences over certain outcomes. It will be shown that utility and probability fu- tions derived in a non-Bayesian manner can be used for generating preferences over uncertain prospects, that support the principle of maximising subjective expected utility. To some extent, this non-Bayesian view gives an account of what modern - cision theory could have been like, had decision theorists not entered the Bayesian path discovered by Ramsey, de Finetti, Savage, and others. I will not discuss all previous non-Bayesian positions presented in the literature.