The Map And The Territory 2 0

Author: Alan Greenspan
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 0698193571
Size: 58.76 MB
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Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. No one with any meaningful role in economic decision making in the world saw beforehand the storm for what it was. How had our models so utterly failed us? To answer this question, Alan Greenspan embarked on a rigorous and far-reaching multiyear examination of how Homo economicus predicts the economic future, and how it can predict it better. Economic risk is a fact of life in every realm, from home to business to government at all levels. Whether we’re conscious of it or not, we make wagers on the future virtually every day, one way or another. Very often, however, we’re steering by out-of-date maps, when we’re not driven by factors entirely beyond our conscious control. The Map and the Territory is nothing less than an effort to update our forecasting conceptual grid. It integrates the history of economic prediction, the new work of behavioral economists, and the fruits of the author’s own remarkable career to offer a thrillingly lucid and empirically based grounding in what we can know about economic forecasting and what we can’t.The book explores how culture is and isn't destiny and probes what we can predict about the world's biggest looming challenges, from debt and the reform of the welfare state to natural disasters in an age of global warming. No map is the territory, but Greenspan’s approach, grounded in his trademark rigor, wisdom, and unprecedented context, ensures that this particular map will assist in safe journeys down many different roads, traveled by individuals, businesses, and the state.

The Map And The Territory

Author: Alan Greenspan
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 1101638745
Size: 72.46 MB
Format: PDF, Docs
View: 1886
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Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. No one with any meaningful role in economic decision making in the world saw beforehand the storm for what it was. How had our models so utterly failed us? To answer this question, Alan Greenspan embarked on a rigorous and far-reaching multiyear examination of how Homo economicus predicts the economic future, and how it can predict it better. Economic risk is a fact of life in every realm, from home to business to government at all levels. Whether we’re conscious of it or not, we make wagers on the future virtually every day, one way or another. Very often, however, we’re steering by out-of-date maps, when we’re not driven by factors entirely beyond our conscious control. The Map and the Territory is nothing less than an effort to update our forecasting conceptual grid. It integrates the history of economic prediction, the new work of behavioral economists, and the fruits of the author’s own remarkable career to offer a thrillingly lucid and empirically based grounding in what we can know about economic forecasting and what we can’t.The book explores how culture is and isn't destiny and probes what we can predict about the world's biggest looming challenges, from debt and the reform of the welfare state to natural disasters in an age of global warming. No map is the territory, but Greenspan’s approach, grounded in his trademark rigor, wisdom, and unprecedented context, ensures that this particular map will assist in safe journeys down many different roads, traveled by individuals, businesses, and the state.

Interactive Granular Computations In Networks And Systems Engineering A Practical Perspective

Author: Andrzej Jankowski
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319576275
Size: 77.83 MB
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The book outlines selected projects conducted under the supervision of the author. Moreover, it discusses significant relations between Interactive Granular Computing (IGrC) and numerous dynamically developing scientific domains worldwide, along with features characteristic of the author’s approach to IGrC. The results presented are a continuation and elaboration of various aspects of Wisdom Technology, initiated and developed in cooperation with Professor Andrzej Skowron. Based on the empirical findings from these projects, the author explores the following areas: (a) understanding the causes of the theory and practice gap problem (TPGP) in complex systems engineering (CSE); (b) generalizing computing models of complex adaptive systems (CAS) (in particular, natural computing models) by constructing an interactive granular computing (IGrC) model of networks of interrelated interacting complex granules (c-granules), belonging to a single agent and/or to a group of agents; (c) developing methodologies based on the IGrC model to minimize the negative consequences of the TPGP. The book introduces approaches to the above issues, using the proposed IGrC model. In particular, the IGrC model refers to the key mechanisms used to control the processes related to the implementation of CSE projects. One of the main aims was to develop a mechanism of IGrC control over computations that model a project’s implementation processes to maximize the chances of its success, while at the same time minimizing the emerging risks. In this regard, the IGrC control is usually performed by means of properly selected and enforced (among project participants) project principles. These principles constitute examples of c-granules, expressed by complex vague concepts (represented by c-granules too). The c-granules evolve with time (in particular, the meaning of the concepts is also subject of change). This methodology is illustrated using project principles applied by the author during the implementation of the POLTAX, AlgoTradix, Merix, and Excavio projects outlined in the book.

Closing Human Evolution Life In The Ultimate Age

Author: Ladislav Kováč
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319206605
Size: 80.95 MB
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This volume analyses the evolution of humankind by combining approaches from science and the arts. It offers a novel perspective on the evolution of life on Earth, based on a recent reformulation of the second law of thermodynamics in terms of the “maximum entropy production principle.” In essence, the Earth is but one of many “white holes” in the universe, where life functions as a specific arrangement for the rapid dissipation of energy gradients by generating self-organized structures. Evolution of life in the universe is a creative process of increasing complexity as a Bayesian ratchet of knowledge accumulation, advancing in an evolutionary maze characterized by myriad blind alleys. On Earth, the human species has progressed more than any other by creating artefacts that have become both agents and products of in our cumulative cultural evolution. Culture has dramatically enhanced the rate of dissipation of energy gradients. Extrapolating from the acceleration of cultural evolution suggests that humanity will reach the Civilization Singularity in the middle of the 21st century, a point in time at which the rate of changes, and hence their unpredictability and uncontrollability, will converge to infinity. Humankind has now entered the ultimate age, in which the exuberance and splendour of human feats may be metaphorically likened to fireworks. The author highlights a new role of scientists as intellectuals who can create “music for the fireworks” by analysing the consequences of the astounding dynamics in order to make the closing phase of human evolution a sublime one marked by minimal political and social tensions.

Global Environmental Risk

Author: Jeanne X. Kasperson
Publisher: United Nations Univ
ISBN: 9789280810271
Size: 75.29 MB
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Annotation. This book examines the distinctive challenges posed by global environmental risks and considers means of identifying and addressing the issues of global environmental change. Subjects discussed include: international comparisons of environmental hazards; risk transition and developing countries; vulnerability studies and environmental change; environmental risk assessment in high-risk regions such as mountain ecosystems and the vulnerability of regions due to drought, climate change and sea-level rises; and exploring alternative future options for sustainable development.

Engineering Geology For Society And Territory Volume 5

Author: Giorgio Lollino
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319090488
Size: 55.63 MB
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This book is one out of 8 IAEG XII Congress volumes, and deals with the theme of urban geology. Along with a rapidly growing world population, the wave of urban growth continues, causing cities to swell and new metropolitan centers to emerge. These global trends also open new ventures for underground city development. Engineering geology plays a major role in facing the increasing issues of the urban environment, such as: finding aggregates for construction works; providing adequate water supply and waste management; solving building problems associated to geological and geomorphological conditions; evaluating host rock conditions for underground constructions; preventing or mitigating geological and seismic hazards. Furthermore, this book illustrates recent advancements in sustainable land use planning, which includes conservation, protection, reclamation and landscape impact of open pit mining and alternative power generation. The Engineering Geology for Society and Territory volumes of the IAEG XII Congress held in Torino from September 15-19, 2014, analyze the dynamic role of engineering geology in our changing world and build on the four main themes of the congress: environment, processes, issues and approaches. The congress topics and subject areas of the 8 IAEG XII Congress volumes are: 1. Climate Change and Engineering Geology 2. Landslide Processes River Basins 3. Reservoir Sedimentation and Water Resources 4. Marine and Coastal Processes Urban Geology 5. Sustainable Planning and Landscape Exploitation 6. Applied Geology for Major Engineering Projects 7. Education, Professional Ethics and Public Recognition of Engineering Geology 8. Preservation of Cultural Heritage

Frontiers In Ecological Economics

Author: Robert Costanza
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN:
Size: 53.53 MB
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'This book is a must for anyone with an interest in ecological economics. the essays reflect his remarkable capacity to synthesise and enhance concepts and ideas of how to achieve a sustainable world which have their roots in more than one scientific discipline.' - Roy Brouwer, the Economic Journal Frontiers in Ecological Economics presents some of Robert Costanza's most important work on understanding ecological and economic systems. A signal contribution of Costanza's work is that he transcends disciplinary boundaries by collaborating closely with other specialists and thereby constructs an integrated analysis of the interaction between humans and the rest of the natural world. the book improves access to Robert Costanza's work which has made a fundamental contribution to the field of ecological economics.

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Size: 71.65 MB
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